- El salto en las grandes acciones tecnológicas del S&P 500 está ocultando las preocupaciones entre los inversores de que Estados Unidos ya está en recesión, dice BlackRock Investment Institute.
- El índice sobre una base ponderada igual ha bajado en lo que va de 2023.
- Estados Unidos ha registrado trimestres consecutivos de contracción en el ingreso interno bruto.
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Las acciones de Nvidia lo están aplastando este año junto con otras acciones tecnológicas de gran capitalización en el S&P 500, pero BlackRock dice que eliminar esos grandes motores revela que los inversores pueden creer que la economía de EE. UU. ya se está contrayendo.
Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft are the S&P 500’s five largest stocks by market capitalization, and they’ve largely held sway over its direction this year. Nvidia’s stock has rocketed up 170% on the buzz about AI technology, and the chipmaker on Tuesday was briefly thrust beyond a $1 trillion valuation.
But for the S&P 500, a “deeper look reveals stocks reflect worsening growth,” Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Institute, said in a note published this week.
The S&P 500 has tacked on about 9% this year. But the group said after applying equal weighting to all of the index’s constituents regardless of size, it’s down by more than 1%.
BlackRock’s reference to growth stems from its view that the effect of rate hikes by global central banks to tame inflation is starting to kick in. Recent data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy, indicates that the country has entered a recession despite experiencing an energy shock that was less severe than widely anticipated.
“In the U.S., GDP has held up but it has arguably entered recession based on gross domestic income, which assesses the economy’s performance on an income rather than spending basis,” said Boivin.
Last week, the government said gross domestic income declined 2.3% in the first quarter of 2023 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. That followed a 3.3% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2002, with the back-to-back quarterly shrinkage indicating a recession. Gross domestic income measures incomes earned and costs incurred in production.
And with inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, policymakers may deliver another increase in interest rates.
“Markets are no longer pricing in repeated Fed rate cuts, a sign they’re grasping inflation’s persistence, in our view,” said BlackRock.
La Fed emitió en mayo su décima subida de tipos consecutiva . Su agresiva serie de alzas el año pasado contribuyó a que el S&P 500 cayera más del 18% el año pasado. La tasa de referencia de los fondos federales se situó en 5%-5,25%.
