골드만 삭스는 경제 데이터가 빠르게 개선되지 않으면 주식 시장이 또 다른 대규모 매도를 향하고 있다고 말합니다.

Goldman은 "지속적이고 장기적인 시장 전환을 기대하기 전에 거시적 측면에서 추가적인 명확성을 기다립니다."라고 말했습니다....





  • 골드만삭스는 목요일 메모에서 경제 지표가 빠르게 개선되지 않는 한 주식 시장은 또 다른 대규모 매도를 향해 가고 있다고 말했다.

  • Goldman은 6월 중순 저점에서 14% 상승의 대부분이 펀더멘털 투자자가 아닌 체계적인 트레이더에 의해 주도된 것에 대해 우려하고 있습니다.

  • Goldman은 “거시 모멘텀의 긍정적인 변화의 명확한 징후가 없다면 일시적인 위험을 재조정하는 것은 실제로 다른 레그의 위험을 증가시킬 수 있습니다.”라고 말했습니다.

로딩 중 무언가를 로딩 중입니다.


Goldman Sachs 의 목요일 메모에 따르면, 투자자들은 6월 중순 저점 이후 S&P 500 의 14% 상승 이 새로운 강세장의 시작이 되기를 희망하면서 숨을 참아서는 안 된다고 밝혔습니다.

The bank said that unless economic data quickly improves, the stock market is headed for another big sell-off that could ultimately lead to new lows.

“Without clear signs of a positive shift in macro momentum, temporary re-risking could actually increase risks of another leg lower in the market rather than signal the end of the bear market,” Goldman’s Cecilia Mariotti said.

That is especially true if the nearly two-month long surge in stock prices has been driven by systematic traders rather than fundamental investors, according to Goldman, as traders can more quickly dump the long exposure and turn bearish.

Depressed investor sentiment and low equity positioning among traders in 2022 is not enough for a sustainable bottom in stocks to materialize, the bank said.

“Given the misalignment we see in growth pricing across assets vs. the still elevated risks to growth investors might face in 2H, we remain comfortable with our somewhat defensive allocation over three months, and would wait for additional clarity on the macro side before expecting a sustained and prolonged market turn,” Mariotti said.

One concern the bank has is the impact of high inflation on retail investors’ ability to continue buying more stocks, as rising prices for everything from gas to food erodes their purchasing power. High inflation could be especially potent as the saving rate continues its decline to pre-pandemic levels.

“This is particularly relevant as households – alongside corporates – have been one of the largest sources of US equity demand,” Mariotti said.

A decline in inflation would be a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve, consumers, and investors, and there are some early signs building via falling commodity prices that suggest a peak in the current cycle of inflation has already happened or is right around the corner.

Falling inflation would give the Fed flexibility in slowing down its interest rate hike trajectory. That, combined with resilient earnings and a rebound in consumer sentiment could help build conviction that the current stock rally has legs. But until inflation decisively peaks, the risk to the downside remains, according to Goldman.

거래 아이콘 번개 모양의 아이콘입니다.

계속 읽으세요

더보기: MI 독점 주식 시장 전망 주식 시장 분석 주식 시장 2022

갈매기 모양 아이콘 확장 가능한 섹션이나 메뉴, 때로는 이전/다음 탐색 옵션을 나타냅니다.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sell-off-ahead-unless-economic-data-improves-2022-8?op=1

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