- Mohamed El-Erian 在英国《金融时报》上写道，美元将继续在世界舞台上占据主导地位。
- 但他警告说，一些非经济威胁可能会挑战美元的地位。
- “国家安全和地缘政治正在取代经济学来塑造国家和国际互动。”
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顶级经济学家 Mohamed El-Erian 在英国《金融时报》写道，美元不会很快失去其主导地位，但威胁正在出现。
No other currency, be it physical or virtual, can replace the dollar as the foundation of global finance, he said.
“However, the global influence of the dollar is facing several non-economic challenges, despite its continued status as the world’s ‘reserve currency,'” the chief economic adviser at Allianz warned. “This is a consequence of an increasingly fragmented international economic system. National security and geopolitics are supplanting economics in shaping national and international interactions.”
Past events that could have unhinged the dollar’s dominance — such as the global financial crisis and the trade wars of 2017 — failed to do so. Despite potentially disrupting the greenback’s prestige, its strength still superseded that of other currencies, El-Erian said.
Today, however, shifts in the global order are bringing about a unique set of threats to the dollar.
He placed some of the responsibility on the Federal Reserve’s “mishandling” of its monetary tightening campaign as well as greater focus on resilience in business and economic strategies.
“Rather than seeking to replace the dollar outright, there is now a step up in efforts to build pipes around it in the world’s trading and payment infrastructures,” he wrote.
For example, China has been on a campaign to chip away at the dollar’s use in trade, creating bilateral agreements with countries to use the yuan instead.
Meanwhile, sanctions against Russia for its war on Ukraine have led many countries to start looking for ways to reduce their dollar dependence and are observing how Moscow has substituted the dollar in its own trade.
To strengthen the dollar, the US and its allies could revitalize multilateralism by guaranteeing more representation for geopolitically important states, El-Erian said. This includes redesigning the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to become more inclusive.
Another option is to “de-risk” instead of “decouple,” though that would fail to offer stability and would do little to strengthen a weakening multilateral order, he noted.
“从经济的角度来看，与其他选择相比，由强大的基于规则的体系支持的更具包容性的多边主义无疑会带来更大的好处，”他写道。“然而，越来越明显的是，经济学不再主导贸易和国际金融进程。”
